How it finished
Austin FC beat Portland Timbers 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Portland Timbers at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Austin FC 22%. It forecast 3.1 goals and the match produced 3. Portland Timbers had 13 shots (5 on target) to Austin FC's 10 (3), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.7 to 1.2, so Portland Timbers created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Portland Timbers vs Austin FC?
Austin FC beat Portland Timbers 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Portland Timbers at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Austin FC 22%. It forecast 3.1 goals and the match produced 3. Portland Timbers had 13 shots (5 on target) to Austin FC's 10 (3), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.7 to 1.2, so Portland Timbers created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Portland Timbers vs Austin FC?
Portland Timbers 1–2 Austin FC, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Portland Timbers 55%, the draw 23% and Austin FC 22%.
What were the stats in Portland Timbers vs Austin FC?
Full-time: Possession 50%–50%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–1.2, Shots 13–10, Shots on target 5–3, Shots inside box 7–5, Big chances 3–2, Corners 6–3, Saves 1–4, Fouls 9–14, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 1–4.
Did both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Austin FC?
Yes — both Portland Timbers and Austin FC scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Portland Timbers vs Austin FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Portland Timbers or draw 78%, it finished Austin FC won (22% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 81%, it finished Landed.