USA: MLSSaturday 22 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Red Bull New York vChicago Fire FC

Most likely scoreline
1–1
9% of the time · 3.48 goals expected
Red Bull New York 36%Draw 27%Chicago Fire FC 37%
How we get there
Red Bull New YorkstepChicago Fire FC
1.74Base xG · rolling 26-match1.75
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.74Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.75

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

New York Red Bulls average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Chicago Fire average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
5
5
3
1
1
5
9
8
5
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Red Bull New York fixtures & form →Chicago Fire FC fixtures & form →

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 9 May 2026, New York Red Bulls have won 1, Chicago Fire have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
9 May 2026Chicago Fire 1–3 New York Red BullsUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: New York Red Bulls 36% · draw 27% · Chicago Fire 37%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

New York Red Bulls predictions & form →Chicago Fire predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.