How it finished
Red Bull New York beat San Diego FC 4–1. Bawler's model had Red Bull New York in front at 39% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals; the match produced 5. Red Bull New York had 28 shots (12 on target) to San Diego FC's 14 (5), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 2.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Red Bull New York vs San Diego FC?
Red Bull New York beat San Diego FC 4–1. Bawler's model had Red Bull New York in front at 39% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals; the match produced 5. Red Bull New York had 28 shots (12 on target) to San Diego FC's 14 (5), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 2.1.
What was the final score in Red Bull New York vs San Diego FC?
Red Bull New York 4–1 San Diego FC, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Red Bull New York 39%, the draw 24% and San Diego FC 38%.
What were the stats in Red Bull New York vs San Diego FC?
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 3.0–2.1, Shots 28–14, Shots on target 12–5, Shots inside box 20–12, Big chances 3–2, Corners 4–7, Saves 4–8, Fouls 20–14, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 2–3.
Did both teams score in Red Bull New York vs San Diego FC?
Yes — both Red Bull New York and San Diego FC scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 67% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Red Bull New York vs San Diego FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Red Bull New York or draw 62%, it finished Red Bull New York won (39% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 67%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 86%, it finished Landed.