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Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC prediction — MLS · Sun 27 Sept · 00:30 UK

MLS · Sun 27 Sept · 00:30 UK
Red Bull New York 34Draw 24St. Louis CITY SC 42
Our call before kickoff
66%
St. Louis CITY SC or draw
3.4
Goals expected
Full time
Match settled
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
80%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
67%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
66%

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

Red Bull New YorkSt. Louis CITY SC
1.6
Goals+0.2
1.8
12.6
Shots+4.0
16.6
3.7
On target+2.9
6.6
4.7
Corners+2.1
6.8
Red Bull New YorkSt. Louis CITY SC
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.6
5.9
Shots+1.8
7.7
1.7
On target+1.4
3.1
2.2
Corners+1.0
3.2
Red Bull New YorkSt. Louis CITY SC
1.1
Goals+0.1
1.2
6.7
Shots+2.2
8.8
2.0
On target+1.5
3.5
2.5
Corners+1.1
3.6

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals85%
St. Louis CITY SC to score83%
Red Bull New York to score80%
Over 2.5 goals66%

First half — what we expected

Red Bull New York
51%
to score before half-time
St. Louis CITY SC
59%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%

Red Bull New YorkSt. Louis CITY SC
5.91st-half shots7.7
1.71st-half shots on target3.1
2.21st-half corners3.2

First-half chances

38%Chance of 7+ shots60%
19%Chance of 9+ shots38%
48%Chance of 2+ shots on target77%
12%Chance of 4+ shots on target37%
60%Chance of 2+ corners78%
20%Chance of 4+ corners39%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Red Bull New York5.96.7
Shots · St. Louis CITY SC7.78.8
Shots on target · Red Bull New York1.72.0
Shots on target · St. Louis CITY SC3.13.5
Corners · Red Bull New York2.22.5
Corners · St. Louis CITY SC3.23.6
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.2 / match
St. Louis CITY SC in their league tableTop quarter
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Common questions

Who will win Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?

Bawler's model rates this match: St. Louis CITY SC are favoured (42% win probability vs 34% for Red Bull New York, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Red Bull New York 1-1 St. Louis CITY SC (10.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.4.

How does Bawler predict Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Red Bull New York 34%, the draw 24% and St. Louis CITY SC 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 67% chance. That is based on Red Bull New York expecting 1.61 goals and St. Louis CITY SC 1.79.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?

Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.

Around this fixture

MLS table →
All fixtures & results →Red Bull New York form →St. Louis CITY SC form →