Union St.-Gilloise vs Anderlecht prediction — Belgian Pro League · Sun 30 Aug · 17:30 UK

Belgian Pro League · Sun 30 Aug · 17:30 UK
Union St.-Gilloise 58Draw 23Anderlecht 19
Our call before kickoff
81%
Union St.-Gilloise or draw
Landed
3.0
Goals expected
Full time
Final 3–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
72%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
55%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
57%

How it finished

Union St.-Gilloise beat Anderlecht 3–0. Bawler's model had Union St.-Gilloise in front at 58% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Union St.-Gilloise had 15 shots (7 on target) to Anderlecht's 12 (2), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 1.4.

Union…Full-time statsAnderlecht
46%Possession54%
1.6Expected goals (xG)1.4
15Shots12
7Shots on target2
13Shots inside box8
2Big chances1
4Corners3
2Saves4
11Fouls14
6Offsides1
2Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callUnion St.-Gilloise or draw 81%Union St.-Gilloise won (58% called)
Total goals3.03
Both teams to score55%No

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

Union St.-GilloiseAnderlecht
1.9
Goals+0.9
1.0
16.5
Shots+7.8
8.6
6.2
On target+3.0
3.1
5.2
Corners+2.1
3.1
Union St.-GilloiseAnderlecht
0.6
Goals+0.2
0.3
7.5
Shots+3.7
3.8
2.8
On target+1.5
1.3
2.5
Corners+1.0
1.5
Union St.-GilloiseAnderlecht
1.4
Goals+0.7
0.7
8.9
Shots+4.1
4.9
3.4
On target+1.6
1.8
2.8
Corners+1.1
1.7

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Union St.-Gilloise to score86%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Under 3.5 goals65%
Anderlecht to score64%

First half — what we expected

Union St.-Gilloise
58%
to score before half-time
Anderlecht
35%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%

Union St.-GilloiseAnderlecht
7.51st-half shots3.8
2.81st-half shots on target1.3
2.51st-half corners1.5

First-half chances

58%Chance of 7+ shots13%
35%Chance of 9+ shots<10%
72%Chance of 2+ shots on target36%
31%Chance of 4+ shots on target<10%
87%Chance of 1+ corners71%
43%Chance of 3+ corners20%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Union St.-Gilloise7.58.9
Shots · Anderlecht3.84.9
Shots on target · Union St.-Gilloise2.83.4
Shots on target · Anderlecht1.31.8
Corners · Union St.-Gilloise2.52.8
Corners · Anderlecht1.51.7
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.9 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Union St.-Gilloise 4 · Draws 0 · Anderlecht 1
Anderlecht in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

May 2026Union St.Gilloise 5–1 Anderlecht
May 2026Union St.Gilloise 3–1 Anderlecht
Apr 2026Anderlecht 1–3 Union St.Gilloise
Nov 2025Anderlecht 1–0 Union St.Gilloise
Aug 2025Union St.Gilloise 2–0 Anderlecht
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Union St.-Gilloise vs Anderlecht?

Union St.-Gilloise beat Anderlecht 3–0. Bawler's model had Union St.-Gilloise in front at 58% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Union St.-Gilloise had 15 shots (7 on target) to Anderlecht's 12 (2), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 1.4.

What was the final score in Union St.-Gilloise vs Anderlecht?

Union St.-Gilloise 3–0 Anderlecht, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Union St.-Gilloise 58%, the draw 23% and Anderlecht 19%.

What were the stats in Union St.-Gilloise vs Anderlecht?

Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–1.4, Shots 15–12, Shots on target 7–2, Shots inside box 13–8, Big chances 2–1, Corners 4–3, Saves 2–4, Fouls 11–14, Offsides 6–1, Yellow cards 2–2.

Did both teams score in Union St.-Gilloise vs Anderlecht?

No. It finished 3–0, so Anderlecht failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Anderlecht right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Union St.-Gilloise or draw 81%, it finished Union St.-Gilloise won (58% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No.

Around this fixture

Jupiler Pro League table →
All fixtures & results →Union St.-Gilloise form →Anderlecht form →