How it finished
Alavés beat Villarreal 1–0. Bawler's model had Alavés in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Alavés had 9 shots (2 on target) to Villarreal's 18 (6), with 24% of the ball against 76%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 1.3, so Villarreal created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Alavés vs Villarreal?
Alavés beat Villarreal 1–0. Bawler's model had Alavés in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Alavés had 9 shots (2 on target) to Villarreal's 18 (6), with 24% of the ball against 76%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 1.3, so Villarreal created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Alavés vs Villarreal?
Alavés 1–0 Villarreal, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the SPAIN: LaLiga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Alavés 40%, the draw 27% and Villarreal 33%.
What were the stats in Alavés vs Villarreal?
Full-time: Possession 24%–76%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–1.3, Shots 9–18, Shots on target 2–6, Shots inside box 4–14, Big chances 1–0, Corners 5–9, Saves 6–1, Fouls 15–8, Offsides 5–4, Yellow cards 3–2.
Did both teams score in Alavés vs Villarreal?
No. It finished 1–0, so Villarreal failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Alavés vs Villarreal right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Alavés or draw 67%, it finished Alavés won (40% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Missed.