Cagliari and Juventus drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Juventus at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Cagliari had 4 shots (2 on target) to Juventus' 22 (10), with 28% of the ball against 72%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Cagliari and Juventus drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Juventus at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Cagliari had 4 shots (2 on target) to Juventus' 22 (10), with 28% of the ball against 72%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.9.
Cagliari 1–1 Juventus, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Cagliari 20%, the draw 25% and Juventus 55%.
Full-time: Possession 28%–72%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.9, Shots 4–22, Shots on target 2–10, Shots inside box 2–8, Big chances 1–2, Corners 1–9, Saves 9–1, Fouls 8–8, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 2–1, Red cards 0–1.
Yes — both Cagliari and Juventus scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Juventus or draw 80%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Both teams to score 51%, it finished Landed.