Elche vs Celta Vigo prediction — LaLiga · Sun 11 Oct · 13:00 UK

LaLiga · Sun 11 Oct · 13:00 UK
Elche 36Draw 27Celta Vigo 37
Our call before kickoff
64%
Celta Vigo or draw
Landed
2.7
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
59%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
55%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
51%

How it finished

Elche and Celta Vigo drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Celta Vigo at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals; nobody scored. Elche had 13 shots (2 on target) to Celta Vigo's 7 (0), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 0.3.

ElcheFull-time statsCelta Vigo
67%Possession33%
0.8Expected goals (xG)0.3
13Shots7
2Shots on target0
8Shots inside box2
0Big chances1
5Corners2
0Saves2
19Fouls21
0Offsides3
1Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callCelta Vigo or draw 64%Draw (27% called)
Total goals2.70
Both teams to score55%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 75%Missed
Second pickOver 2.5 goals 51%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

ElcheCelta Vigo
1.3
Goals
1.4
13.3
Shots+2.9
16.2
5.0
On target+0.2
5.2
4.3
Corners+0.1
4.2
ElcheCelta Vigo
0.4
Goals
0.4
6.1
Shots+1.4
7.5
2.0
On target+0.4
2.4
2.0
Corners+0.1
2.0
ElcheCelta Vigo
1.0
Goals
1.0
7.2
Shots+1.5
8.7
3.0
On target+0.2
2.8
2.3
Corners+0.1
2.2

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals75%
Celta Vigo to score75%
Elche to score74%
Under 3.5 goals71%

First half — what we expected

Elche
35%
to score before half-time
Celta Vigo
37%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 59%

ElcheCelta Vigo
6.11st-half shots7.5
2.01st-half shots on target2.4
2.01st-half corners2.0

First-half chances

41%Chance of 7+ shots58%
21%Chance of 9+ shots35%
82%Chance of 1+ shots on target88%
32%Chance of 3+ shots on target41%
82%Chance of 1+ corners81%
32%Chance of 3+ corners31%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Elche6.17.2
Shots · Celta Vigo7.58.7
Shots on target · Elche2.03.0
Shots on target · Celta Vigo2.42.8
Corners · Elche2.02.3
Corners · Celta Vigo2.02.2
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Elche form (last 6)L L D L W D
Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.0 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Elche 1 · Draws 0 · Celta Vigo 4
Celta Vigo in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

May 2026Celta Vigo 3–1 Elche
Sept 2025Elche 2–1 Celta Vigo
Apr 2023Celta Vigo 1–0 Elche
Jan 2023Elche 0–1 Celta Vigo
May 2022Celta Vigo 1–0 Elche
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Elche vs Celta Vigo?

Elche and Celta Vigo drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Celta Vigo at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals; nobody scored. Elche had 13 shots (2 on target) to Celta Vigo's 7 (0), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 0.3.

What was the final score in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

Elche 0–0 Celta Vigo, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Elche 36%, the draw 27% and Celta Vigo 37%.

What were the stats in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

Full-time: Possession 67%–33%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.3, Shots 13–7, Shots on target 2–0, Shots inside box 8–2, Big chances 0–1, Corners 5–2, Saves 0–2, Fouls 19–21, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 1–3.

Did both teams score in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

No. It finished 0–0, so Elche failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Elche vs Celta Vigo right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Celta Vigo or draw 64%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

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All fixtures & results →Elche form →Celta Vigo form →