How it finished
Genoa beat Fiorentina 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Fiorentina at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Genoa 35%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Genoa had 10 shots (4 on target) to Fiorentina's 13 (3), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 66%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Genoa beat Fiorentina 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Fiorentina at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Genoa 35%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Genoa had 10 shots (4 on target) to Fiorentina's 13 (3), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.0.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Genoa 35%, the draw 27% and Fiorentina 38%.
What were the stats in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.0, Shots 10–13, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 7–10, Big chances 3–0, Corners 3–4, Saves 3–2, Fouls 11–10, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 5–3.
Did both teams score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Yes — both Genoa and Fiorentina scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Genoa vs Fiorentina right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Fiorentina or draw 65%, it finished Genoa won (35% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Both teams to score 55%, it finished Landed.