How it finished
Atlético Madrid beat Sevilla 3–1. Bawler's model had Atlético Madrid in front at 41% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Sevilla had 21 shots (5 on target) to Atlético Madrid's 12 (5), with 42% of the ball against 58%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 0.9, so Sevilla created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid beat Sevilla 3–1. Bawler's model had Atlético Madrid in front at 41% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Sevilla had 21 shots (5 on target) to Atlético Madrid's 12 (5), with 42% of the ball against 58%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 0.9, so Sevilla created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?
Sevilla 1–3 Atlético Madrid, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Sevilla 33%, the draw 26% and Atlético Madrid 41%.
What were the stats in Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?
Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–0.9, Shots 21–12, Shots on target 5–5, Shots inside box 12–9, Big chances 1–2, Corners 4–2, Saves 2–4, Fouls 20–16, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?
Yes — both Sevilla and Atlético Madrid scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Atlético Madrid or draw 67%, it finished Atlético Madrid won (41% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.