Watford and West Ham United drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured West Ham United at 54% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. Watford had 15 shots (4 on target) to West Ham United's 13 (1), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 0.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Watford and West Ham United drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured West Ham United at 54% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. Watford had 15 shots (4 on target) to West Ham United's 13 (1), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 0.7.
Watford 1–1 West Ham United, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Watford 21%, the draw 25% and West Ham United 54%.
Full-time: Possession 38%–62%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–0.7, Shots 15–13, Shots on target 4–1, Shots inside box 13–6, Big chances 0–0, Corners 3–11, Saves 1–3, Fouls 9–7, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 3–1.
Yes — both Watford and West Ham United scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said West Ham United or draw 79%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished Yes.