Wrexham beat Millwall 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Millwall at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Wrexham 25%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Millwall had 4 shots (0 on target) to Wrexham's 9 (3), with 39% of the ball against 61%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Wrexham beat Millwall 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Millwall at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Wrexham 25%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Millwall had 4 shots (0 on target) to Wrexham's 9 (3), with 39% of the ball against 61%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 0.9.
Millwall 0–3 Wrexham, played on 02 Sept 2026 in the ENGLAND: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Millwall 49%, the draw 26% and Wrexham 25%.
Full-time: Possession 39%–61%, Expected goals (xG) 0.2–0.9, Shots 4–9, Shots on target 0–3, Shots inside box 1–8, Big chances 0–2, Corners 1–2, Saves 1–0, Fouls 11–14, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
No. It finished 0–3, so Millwall failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Millwall or draw 75%, it finished Wrexham won (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.